Oscar Predictions for 2014!

Because the Oscars did not want to be put against the Closing Ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympics, we have had a particularly long awards season. The Globes were over a month and a half ago; the Baftas a couple weeks ago. Are we in statuette fatigue yet? I am now compelled to say that the length of this season may lead to one of the most spectacularly predictable Oscars in recent memory. With L.A. still under a flood watch, this may prove to be Oscar's soggiest year.

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave

McQueen's directorial adaptation of Solomon Northrup's memoir of 1853 (notice the date: before Dred Scott, John Brown or, even, Bloody Kansas) has been criticized, analyzed, praised. Melissa Harris-Perry and bell hooks had a rousing discussion about this movie, where Harris-Perry thought the film did and admirable job of exposing the daily brutalities of slave life, while hooks was convinced the film offered nothing for African Americans. I see the film as playing a particularly important role in the current political discourse, where the Right is firmly convinced that the civil War was not waged over slavery, where Obamacare is "a new form of slavery," a prominent libertarian can write jokingly that slavery and the Civil Rights Act are not that far away, and state legislators can tell African Americans that it is time "to get over slavery." Although Reconstruction ended in 1877, the American nation is still grappling with this past. Of course, the most heartbreaking moment of the piece is the brief written postscript that informs us that we are not sure as to the events of the last decade of his life, or even his exact date of death. McQueen's great intervention in making this film was to use the visual language of the glamorized South portrayed in Hollywood films, such as Jezebel or Gone with the Wind. This film is sumptuous and makes its statement in the same way that Cukor or Fleming would, creating his own equivalencies of this universe. With the breathtaking cast of Ejiofor, Sarah Paulson (in a particularly gruesome portrayal that exposes the limits of sisterhood), newcomer Lupita Nyong'o and Michael Fassbender, this film offers a biting critique of the mythology of the lost cause told in stunning technicolor.

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Many have complained that Gravity is light on story and heavy on technical effects, but, oh what technical effects. The breathtaking vision we get of loneliness with a pacing that keeps one's knuckles white throughout is a technical feat of achievement that few directors can achieve. I would have, in fact, preferred even less back story for Bullock's character, and more moments of the sublime loneliness of space (something JC Chandor accomplished in his version of Gravity awash at sea, All is Lost). Films set in space changed drastically after Kubrick's 2001, and now after Gravity, no space film will be the same. 

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Writing the above words made my skin crawl. I should admit that I enjoyed Jean-Marc Vallée's piece about the debates surrounding AZT in the mid-1980's and the efforts of one man in Texas to try to combat the slow-going processes of the FDA. McConaughey showed a depth to his characterization that we have not seen and this may just be his annis mirabilis (Mud and True Detective have also garnered the drawler a mountain of praise). I just don't like him. He is going to ascend the stage and chant, "All right, all right, all right," and then I shall wretch. I would love to see Leo win instead, but the controversy around Wolf of Wall Street has hindered his chance at receiving his long-coveted award.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

For a brief moment, I wondered whether the renewed outrage over Woody Allen was going to affect Cate the Great's chances of winning, but it appears as if any such fears were misplaced. Her performance is so deftly layered, complex and campy that no one can compete with it. Blanchett has taken a character with so little empathy and somehow made her a touch sympathetic. Her delusions are so strongly held that by the last pathetic shot, the audience is convinced this woman will descend into complete madness. I have never left a movie theater wanting a stiff drink and shower so desperately. I must admit that I would love to see Judi win for an equally complicated performance (but far less showy) in Philomena, but Cate who lost the Oscar for both Elizabeth I and Bob Dylan will win her second this year.

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

All I gotta say is that he is playing a drug-addicted transsexual dying of AIDS. If that role doesn't win you an Oscar, you're doing something wrong.

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave

Please, dear Academy, I beg of you: do not give it to J. Law. Please. Please. I beg of you. Please. This may sound desperate because it is. Jenny from the block won last year, she is fine. Can we please award this to the ingenue who graduated from Yale Drama School and made her feature film debut in a searing critique of slavery wherein she serves as the moral compass of the movie. Please, as the ad campaign for 12 years says, "It's time."

Best Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze, Her

Spike Jonze has not yet won an Academy Award. Enough said. However, Her paints a portrait of a future LA that I would love to inhabit. No cars, nice burnt orange slacks, talking computers. There is a tinge of a complete dystopia on the horizon of this movie, but the lives we could carve out in this universe would be fulfilling for that brief moment in time.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Philomena

12 Years a Slave will likely win here, but I want to see the witty, charming adaptation of Martin Sixsmith's journalistic expose by Steve Coogan to garner the prize. A film that could have been overwhelmingly sentimental and bleak, instead, turned into a message piece with a light touch and deeply abiding sense of humor.

Best Foreign Film: The Great Beauty

Haven't seen it, but I adored Paolo Sorrentino's Il Divo about former Italian PM, Andreotti. This was is in the top of my queue.

Best Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing

Some pundits argue that 20 Feet from Stardom (about back-up singers) will be the victor in a repeat of last year's victory for Searching for Sugar Man (about a forgotten singer who unknown to him was a cult favorite in South Africa). I believe the surreal masterpiece that is The Act of Killing will still triumph. This film, which in fact as an uncut version on youtube with a running time of over 3 hours, examines the massacre of thousands of purported Communists in the year following the collapse of Sukarno's government in Indonesia in 1965. These men who have been hailed as heroes by their nation are ecstatic about sharing gruesome details of each act, even going so far as to re-enacting their murders in the style of Robert DeNiro gangster films.

Best Animated Feature: Frozen

Surprisingly, Disney has never won since this category was inaugurated in 2003. The first Disney animated film co-directed by a woman exploded at the box office this past year (it appears that it has a chance of grossing over $1 billion worldwide). The film that demonstrates that Aretha and Annie Lennox were correct and that sisters are doing it for themselves looks to have locked this category down.

Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Score: Gravity

With the technical expertise of Gravity, we shall hear a lot of thank yous directed to Cuarón durign that middle section of the awards. Even those handful of people who loathed this movie must admit that it is deserving in these technical categories.

Best Song: "Let It Go," Frozen

Pharrell's "Happy," which just ascended to the top slot on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, could be the big upset here, but "Let it Go" finalyl gave Idina Menzel her first top 20 hit, after two albums where she attempted the same by distancing ehrself from Broadway. Her retread of "Defying Gravity" (ironic with this year's nominees) will be a major crowd pleaser at the show on Sunday. Let's just hope that she can hit that high note.

Best Costume Design and Production Design: The Great Gatsby

You cannot deny that the film was pretty, even if the adaptation had a host of flaws. Everyone looked great and I need to get that tailor down the street to make me a couple of those suits.


Best Makeup: Bad Grandpa

Yup, I want the John Knoxville movie to win an Oscar.  Now hear me out on this: Bad Grandpa makeup designers actually came up with a new type of paper-thin silicone that would be translucent and reflect the movement of skin more accurately. Channels had to be carved out in the latex so Knoxville's sweat could be funneled off his face because silicone does not breathe. Over sixty sets of this facial makeup had to be produced because each day of filming required a new application of the make up. It is a truly technical feat. If voters are too creeped out by voting for this, they will go with Dallas Buyers Club.

Best Animated Short: Get a Horse!

Mickey Mouse makes his triumphant return to the big screen.

Best Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6

This set of interviews with the oldest known Holocaust survivor (she passed away just a few weeks ago) is poignant and touching and perfect Oscar fodder.

Best Live Short: Avant que de tout perdre (Just before losing everything)

I encourage everyone to try to find a copy of this on the interwebs. It is a terrifying, minimalist horror film. I don't know if it will win (this category is difficult to predict because those who can vote actually have to attend a screening of them, making the voting pool an infinitesimal fraction of the actual 6,000 members of the Academy), but it should.