Saturday, February 21, 2015

Oscar Predictions -- 2015 Edition


As the Hollywood elite are in the midst of primping and cleansing for tomorrow's big event, I shall run down the categories and over assorted prognostications. Unlike the past several years, where the top categories seemed fairly predictable (save for Best Director in 2012, when Ang Lee surprisingly won), there are several categories this year that seem like toss-ups between two favored films. Then, there are a handful of categories where there is no question who will win. Thus, we could have a night with several surprises, or afterwards we will all shake our heads and say, "well, I saw that one coming."

Best Picture: Birdman 

Boyhood was clearly the front runner in this category just a month ago. It had won a slew of critics' awards and also the Golden Globe. At the Globes, Birdman's solitary prize was for screenplay. Then, surprisingly, the guilds awards all went for Birman. The PGA, DGA, and SAG all honored the hectically paced backstage drama about a washed-up action star. Although Boyhood could still eke out a win here, it seems as if Birdman has momentum behind it. But there is another wrinkle to this: with the preferential ballot system for Best Picture, I wonder if these two could divide the vote in such a way that The Grand Budapest Hotel or Imitation Game wins the big prize. I assume that American Sniper has no chance here, but I thought the same for Crash in 2005, so I could be wrong yet again.

Best Director: Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Although González Iñárritu is nipping at Linklater's heels for this prize, I do believe that Linklater's scope and tenacity in bringing this production to fruition will ultimately win.

Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice

There is no doubt in anyone's mind that Julianne Moore will easily triumph in this category. This is her fifth nomination and she is well respected in Hollywood. My only twinge of sadness about this stems from the fact that Moore will not win the award for some of her truly seminal work in films such as The Hours, The End of the Affair, Far from Heaven, Magnolia and Boogie Nights. Moore is fantastic as a Columbia linguistics professor facing the diagnosis and encroaching symptoms of early-onset Alzheimer's, but the film is marred by a terribly pouty performance from Kristen Stewart as her whining daughter who longs to be taken seriously as an actress. I wish this win was for Far from Heaven 2: Loving the Gardener, again. 

Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman

Eddie Redmayne is clearly the leading contender for this prize, having already won the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA for Best Actor. I am personally biased against Redmayne (I just don't like him), but I am resistant to giving the award to such an Oscar-baiting performance. it just all seems so obvious: he is playing a real-life crippled, tortured and unlucky-in-love brilliant scientist. Can't we give it to something that isn't so obvious. The layers of Keaton's performance and the numerous gestures towards his own life, creates this complex performance of signs (signifiers and the signified) and even the notion that Keaton himself is the far-off referent in all of this.

Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Whiplash wowed the crowds at Sundance last January and, in a very limited release, created some serious word of mouth. Ultimately, it shocked everyone for some big nominations at the BAFTAs and Oscars, including Best Picture. The film narrates a struggle between teacher and student that is anchored by two great performances from Miles Teller and Simmons. Simmons, being the longtime character actor, familiar from Law & Order, Juno, and those Farmers Insurance commercials, will get some respect from his peers tomorrow night, for a performance everyone believes deserves it.

Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

I have been flummoxed by some of the critical reaction to Arquette's performance. Most critics have noted how "brave" she was to allow herself to expand (in terms of her weight, not her craft), age and wrinkle before our eyes in this film. That misses the point that Arquette has created a performance that fights against the very androcentric gaze of this film--it's called boyhood, for god's sake. Arquette's mother fights for recognition, love, and respect, as she makes mistakes, fails, and, in the end, triumphs. Although I have a bit of a desire to see Keira Knightley win here, I am fully on board with the Arquette bandwagon.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

This may be Imitation Game's only chance for a big prize--or any prize, in fact--but the bizarre story around Chazelle's screenplay may have garnered it enough attention to win the Oscar. Channel films a piece of his screenplay in order to raise financing for the production, but because of this brief filmed piece that was used to shop the screenplay around the writers' branch deemed the screenplay adapted, even though the screenplay was written first! A similar situation occurred to Billy bob Thornton with his Sling Blade script.

Best Original Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Two months ago, I was convinced that Birdman would only win one big prize and it would be in this category. Now, that seems not to be the case, and I think Anderson's well-liked and successful trifle that depicts love, baking, hoteliers, among the rise of totalitarianism to win his first Oscar.

Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Since Lego Movie is not nominated and the Dragon sequel won the Globe and BAFTA, I assume it will win here, too. The first film was inventive and charming; I found myself lost in the sequel (though I enjoyed the addition of Cate Blanchett), but since Big Hero 6 has no momentum, this has to win.

Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

Laura Poitras' look at Edward Snowden will premiere on HBO on Monday night, so I have yet to see it. The film has rave reviews and seems to offer the fullest portrait of our NSA leaker, since Glenn Greenwald's work.

Best Foreign Language Film: Ida 

Leviathan, a Russian film about small-town corruption, may win here, but I want this beautiful Polish film about a young novitiate search for answers to what happened to her family during the Holocaust (spoiler alert: they died) is one of the most breathtakingly gorgeous films of the year.

Best Song: "Glory" from Selma

Wouldn't it be nice for a truly good hip-hop song win in this category that doesn't have pimp in the title, or isn't written by a white dude? I think it would be. It would also give Selma a chance to shine, after being willfully ignored by the Academy in every other category, save Picture.

Best Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Grand Budapest Hotel

The Icelandic composer, Johann Johannsonn, created a lush string-filled score for Theory of Everything, and that may win here, but Desplat's careful work that has garnered him eight nominations (with zero wins, and two nominations this year), I think should finally compel the Academy to award him this year.

Best Costume Design, Make-up/Hair and Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel

The costumes and sets for Anderson's delightful romp will do a repeat of Great Gatsby and win these prizes handily. What was done to Tilda Swinton will win the award for Makeup.

Best Cinematography: Birdman

This may be the most difficult category for me to call. It is filled with nominees who are all serving. Roger Deakins, who has made a career of working with the Coen Brothers, has yet to win. Mr. Turner  and Ida are two gorgeous films; Grand Budapest continues Anderson's aesthetic project of juxtaposition of numerous shooting styles to create a vibrant tableau. I assume because of the technical mastery required to film the precisely choreographed scenes of Birdman will bring Emmanuel Lubezki his second consecutive Oscar, after winning for Gravity last year.

Best Editing: Whiplash 

This prediction may seem to be out of left field, especially since Birdman and Boyhood seem to be the two obvious choices here. Boyhood had 12 years of footage to sift through. Birdman had to be edited so carefully that it appeared there was no editing. However, Whiplash's musical sequences are so wonderfully filmed and carefully edited that I, like the BAFTAs, want this film to be awarded here.

Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash

To ensure that the drumming was heard loud and clear, and didn't simply fade into the background required quite a bit of technical mastery. If I am correct, Whiplash may be one of the biggest surprise winners of the evening with four awards.

Best Sound Editing: American Sniper

I am willing to give the Eastwood jingoistic flick this award, and that is all.

Best Visual Effects: Interstellar

Nolan's latest sci-fi epic faltered a bit at the box office, and there was some serious criticism leveled at the film about its gender and racial politics, but the powerful worlds created by Nolan's team were imaginative and impressive (even if the sound mixing in the movie was terrible).

Best Animated Short: Feast 

Feast was the Disney short ahead of Big Hero 6. It is about a dog's love of food, so why not?

Best Documentary Short: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

HBO's documentary about working on a suicide helpline for Veterans is harrowing and powerful, and calls for much-needed resources to be sent towards the mental health of returning combatants from our decades-long wars.

Best Live Action Short: The Phone Call

Another film about suicide hotlines, but this time with Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent. It is rare to see major star power in a short like this, and it could garner some attention from Academy voters due to that. The other contender in this category appears to be Butter Lamp which is a loosely confederated set of images of Tibetan nomads.